Exit Polls 2026: BJP Predicted to Win Assam, Edge in Bengal; DMK Set to Return in Tamil Nadu, UDF to Reclaim Kerala
The voting is done. The booths are closed. And now comes the part that makes political watchers either sit very still or start pacing , the exit polls 2026.
Five states and one Union Territory went to the polls in the 2026 assembly elections: Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Puducherry. Counting is scheduled for May 4. But the exit polls, released on April 29 after the close of the final phase of polling in West Bengal, have already done what exit polls always do , handed everyone a result to argue about for the next five days.
Some of the predictions are clear. Some are contradictory. And at least one state is, depending on which pollster you believe, either a sweep or a photo finish. Let us go through it, state by state.
Assam Exit Polls 2026: BJP Heading for a Sweep
Of all five states, Assam is the least complicated story coming out of the exit polls 2026. Most pollsters are projecting a comfortable, sometimes commanding, win for the BJP and its allies.
Axis My India, one of the more closely watched agencies, predicted 88-100 seats for the BJP-led alliance and just 24-36 seats for the Congress and its partners. Kamakhya Analytics is in the same territory. The state has 126 assembly seats.
If those numbers hold, this would be a decisive mandate , not a close win, not a surprise , in a state where the BJP has been the incumbent and has built its presence steadily over two terms. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma had made himself the undisputed face of the campaign, and the exit polls suggest that face worked.
Voter turnout in Assam was recorded at around 85.91 per cent in the single-phase polling held on April 9. That is a high number. High turnout can cut either way, but in states where a ruling party has consolidated its base, it often reinforces rather than disrupts the incumbent advantage.
West Bengal Exit Polls 2026: The One Nobody Can Agree On
If Assam is a clear story, West Bengal exit polls 2026 are the opposite. This is the state where different pollsters are not just offering different margins , they are predicting fundamentally different outcomes.
West Bengal has 294 assembly seats. Majority mark: 148.
Matrize has given the BJP an edge: 146-161 seats against TMC's 125-140. P-Marq goes further: 150-175 for the BJP, 118-138 for the TMC. Poll Diary is similar: BJP 142-171, TMC 99-127.
Then there is People's Pulse, which sees it entirely differently: TMC 177-187 seats, BJP 95-110. That is not a narrow disagreement. That is two opposite verdicts.
What does this mean practically? It means the exit polls are not giving a reliable signal for West Bengal. The actual result on May 4 will be a genuine surprise, regardless of which way it goes, because half the pollsters will be embarrassingly wrong.
What makes Bengal complicated is that it is not purely an ideological contest. It is also a machine politics contest, a question of booth management, of local alliances, of whether the anti-incumbency that the BJP has been building against Mamata Banerjee is real or surface-level. The polls cannot fully capture that texture. Some try. None can be certain.
Axis My India, notably, held back its West Bengal numbers , those were set to be released on Thursday. That itself is interesting.
Tamil Nadu Exit Polls 2026: DMK Set to Return, But TVK is the Wild Card
Tamil Nadu exit polls 2026 are telling a largely consistent story: the DMK-led alliance under Chief Minister MK Stalin is heading for a second term. The question is by how much, and what Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) takes out of the equation.
Tamil Nadu has 234 seats. Majority mark: 118.
People's Pulse: DMK alliance 125-145 seats. AIADMK-BJP 65-80. TVK 18-24.
Matrix: DMK-Congress 122-132 seats. AIADMK plus 87-100. TVK 10-12.
P-Marq: DMK plus 125-145. AIADMK 65-85. TVK 16-26.
Praja Polls goes higher for DMK: 148-168. People's Insight is slightly more conservative at 120-140 for the DMK alliance, but assigns 30-40 seats to TVK, a number that would make the new party a serious third force.
The one outlier is JVC, which has predicted an AIADMK win with 128-147 seats and a DMK limited to 75-95. JVC is alone in this prediction.
The big structural question in Tamil Nadu is whether Vijay's TVK ends up as a spoiler for the DMK or simply picks up marginal seats without disrupting the mandate. The exit polls are not aligned on this. TVK's seat estimates range from near-zero to 40 across different agencies. That range is enormous , it reflects genuine uncertainty about how a new party with star-powered campaigning translates into votes in a state with entrenched two-party politics.
Kerala Exit Polls 2026: UDF Comeback After 10 Years?
The Kerala exit polls 2026 are pointing toward something historically familiar and politically significant: the end of the LDF's decade-long hold on power.
Kerala has 140 assembly seats. Majority mark: 71. And true to form, Kerala has rarely re-elected an incumbent government in the modern era. The 2026 election was always going to test whether Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's LDF could break that pattern or become the exception.
The exit polls say: probably not.
Axis My India projected 78-90 seats for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and 49-62 for the Left Democratic Front (LDF). People's Pulse: UDF 75-85, LDF 55-65. Matrize: UDF 70-75, LDF 60-65.
People's Insight was tighter: LDF 58-68, UDF 66-76. Vote Vibe: LDF 58-68, UDF 70-80, NDA zero.
The range varies, but the direction across nearly all pollsters is the same: UDF above 71, LDF below it. If the projections hold, the Congress-led UDF is heading back to power in Kerala after 10 years , which would be, by Kerala's standards, exactly on schedule.
Voter turnout in Kerala was around 78 per cent , lower than other poll-bound states this cycle, but historically normal for the state.
Read More: Modi's Matua Gambit: The One Speech That Could Decide West Bengal's 2026 Election
Puducherry Exit Polls 2026: NDA Returning Quietly
Puducherry tends to be the state that finishes last in any discussion of multi-state elections. It has only 30 elected seats.
But the exit polls are clear: Axis My India predicted 16-20 seats for the NDA (AINRC-led) and 6-8 for the DMK-Congress. Kamakhya Analytics: AINRC plus 17-24, Congress plus 4-7. Praja Poll: AINRC 19-25, Congress plus 6-10.
The NDA is returning to Puducherry. That part is not really in dispute.
What Exit Polls Actually Tell You , And What They Don't
Exit polls have a track record in India that is best described as "sometimes right, occasionally very wrong." The 2004 general election, when exit polls confidently predicted the NDA's return and the actual result delivered a Congress win, remains the cautionary tale. Bihar in 2020. Delhi in 2020.
What exit polls capture reasonably well: broad direction in stable political environments. What they struggle with: new entrants like TVK, booth-level variables, late swings, and states where voter identity is hyperlocal.
In 2026, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu are the two states where the exit polls feel most uncertain. Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry have cleaner signals. The actual numbers come out on May 4, and that is the only data that matters.
The picture as of April 29 is this: BJP dominant in Assam, likely strong in Bengal but not certain; DMK heading back in Tamil Nadu with TVK as an unpredictable new variable; UDF set to end the LDF decade in Kerala; and NDA quietly back in Puducherry. Five days until counting. Until then, exit polls are all anyone has , and as always, they are best read as a rough map, not a guaranteed destination.
Disclaimer: This article is based on information available across the web. Parchar Manch does not take responsibility for its complete accuracy, as the content could not be fully verified.
FAQs
When is the vote counting for the 2026 state elections?
Counting of votes for all five assemblies , West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry , is scheduled for May 4, 2026.
Which party is predicted to win West Bengal in the exit polls 2026?
Most pollsters, including Matrize, P-Marq, and Poll Diary, predict a BJP win. However, People's Pulse predicts a clear TMC win with 177-187 seats. West Bengal is the most contested prediction among all states.
Is DMK winning Tamil Nadu in 2026?
Exit polls from most agencies project a DMK alliance win in Tamil Nadu. People's Pulse gives them 125-145 seats, Matrize 122-132, and Praja Polls as many as 148-168. Only JVC is predicting an AIADMK victory.
What does UDF winning Kerala mean?
If the UDF wins, it would mean the Congress-led alliance returns to power in Kerala after 10 years, ending the LDF's consecutive terms. This would follow Kerala's long-standing pattern of alternating between the two fronts every election.
How reliable are exit polls in Indian state elections?
Exit polls in India have had a mixed history. They are broadly directional but have been significantly wrong on several occasions , particularly in complex, multi-cornered contests or where new political parties are involved.
How reliable are exit polls in Indian state elections?
Exit polls in India have had a mixed history. They are broadly directional but have been significantly wrong on several occasions , particularly in complex, multi-cornered contests or where new political parties are involved.